The Green Party of Canada will announce a new leader this evening. Toward the end of the party’s 2020 leadership race, I used public donation data to project that Annamie Paul would defeat Dimitri Lascaris 54%-46% in the final round, with Courtney Howard placing third with 21%. This proved to be pretty accurate: Paul defeatedContinue reading “Projection: May to Win Green Party Leadership in Final Round”
Anyone who follows Canadian politics is aware of the Green Party’s catastrophic performance in the 2021 election. After the party failed to nominate a full slate of candidates and saw its support collapse to 2.3% of votes Canada-wide, then-leader Annamie Paul publicly announced her resignation, comparing her experience as leader to crawling over broken glass.Continue reading “The Green Party of Canada Has Lost 11,000 Members”
(Short on time? The projection is at the end of the post – search for “one-week projection” or scroll down.) Over the past few elections, the increasing number of polls being published and the increasing sophistication of polling aggregators like CBC Poll Tracker and 338Canada allow us to enjoy a much more accurate read onContinue reading “Projecting the 2021 Election, One Week Out”
The deadline to nominate candidates for the September 20th election has passed, and for the first time in two decades, the Green Party has failed to nominate a full slate. On August 15th, I raised the possibility that the Greens might fall short, nominating somewhere in the neighborhood of 245 candidates. As I write this,Continue reading “Greens Fail to Nominate Full Slate; up to $1,000,000 of Public Funding At Risk”
In my previous post, I discussed the possibility that the Green Party of Canada may not run a full slate in the 2021 election, and could potentially lose hundreds of thousands of dollars of public funding as a result. Why? The reason lies in Canada’s system of reimbursing campaign expenses from public funds. This postContinue reading “Slate Canyon: Expense Reimbursements and the Dilemma for Small Parties”
Sluggish candidate nominations could trigger a death spiral for the Greens, affecting finances, debate inclusion, and popular support.
This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. This post updates the projection I posted on September 26th to account for last-minute data. Projection Annamie Paul wins the leadership in the 7th round,defeating Dimitri Lascaris 53.6% to 46.4%. Expected Round-by-Round Results The table below shows theContinue reading “Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: Updated Projection”
This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. The projection is based on a statistical model, developed over the past year, that was designed specifically to project ranked-ballot leadership races in Canada. Using this model, 100,000 simulations were run and the results analyzed. Projection Annamie PaulContinue reading “Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: A Projection”
(This post is the second in a series. Previously, I examined Singh’s claim about Abortion Rights.) At the first Leader’s Debate on Sept 12th, 2019, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh proposed four “points of difference” between the NDP and the Greens. One of his claims was that the NDP has “a solid position when it comesContinue reading “Singh’s “Points of Difference”: National Unity”
During the Maclean’s–CityTV leader’s debate on September 12th 2019, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh contrasted his party with the Greens by naming four alleged points of difference between the parties. Are those differences legitimate?