Projecting the 2021 Election, One Week Out

(Short on time? The projection is at the end of the post – search for “one-week projection” or scroll down.) Over the past few elections, the increasing number of polls being published and the increasing sophistication of polling aggregators like CBC Poll Tracker and 338Canada allow us to enjoy a much more accurate read onContinue reading “Projecting the 2021 Election, One Week Out”

Greens Fail to Nominate Full Slate; up to $1,000,000 of Public Funding At Risk

The deadline to nominate candidates for the September 20th election has passed, and for the first time in two decades, the Green Party has failed to nominate a full slate. On August 15th, I raised the possibility that the Greens might fall short, nominating somewhere in the neighborhood of 245 candidates. As I write this,Continue reading “Greens Fail to Nominate Full Slate; up to $1,000,000 of Public Funding At Risk”

Slate Canyon: Expense Reimbursements and the Dilemma for Small Parties

In my previous post, I discussed the possibility that the Green Party of Canada may not run a full slate in the 2021 election, and could potentially lose hundreds of thousands of dollars of public funding as a result. Why? The reason lies in Canada’s system of reimbursing campaign expenses from public funds. This postContinue reading “Slate Canyon: Expense Reimbursements and the Dilemma for Small Parties”

Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: Updated Projection

This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. This post updates the projection I posted on September 26th to account for last-minute data. Projection Annamie Paul wins the leadership in the 7th round,defeating Dimitri Lascaris 53.6% to 46.4%. Expected Round-by-Round Results The table below shows theContinue reading “Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: Updated Projection”

Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: A Projection

This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. The projection is based on a statistical model, developed over the past year, that was designed specifically to project ranked-ballot leadership races in Canada. Using this model, 100,000 simulations were run and the results analyzed. Projection Annamie PaulContinue reading “Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: A Projection”

Singh’s “Points of Difference”: National Unity

(This post is the second in a series. Previously, I examined Singh’s claim about Abortion Rights.) At the first Leader’s Debate on Sept 12th, 2019, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh proposed four “points of difference” between the NDP and the Greens. One of his claims was that the NDP has “a solid position when it comesContinue reading “Singh’s “Points of Difference”: National Unity”

Are Singh’s “Four Points of Difference” Between the Greens and NDP Legitimate?

During the Maclean’s–CityTV leader’s debate on September 12th 2019, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh contrasted his party with the Greens by naming four alleged points of difference between the parties. Are those differences legitimate?

PPC vs. Greens: An Update

My previous post asked whether the People’s Party of Canada had overtaken the Greens. In that post, I compared polling, membership levels, donations, and number of EDAs. Several months have passed since then. This post updates my analysis with the most current information.

Have the People’s Party Overtaken the Greens?

Recent announcements from the People’s Party of Canada indicate that, in the three-and-a-half months since it formed, it may have already surpassed the Green Party of Canada to become Canada’s fourth-largest federal party.