Building Blocs
A blog about the mechanics of elections in Canada. Projections, models, and insights about votes, dollars, parties, and more.
Projection: May to Win Green Party Leadership in Final Round
The Green Party of Canada will announce a new leader this evening. Toward the end of the party’s 2020 leadership race, I used public donation data to project that Annamie Paul would defeat Dimitri Lascaris 54%-46% in the final round, with Courtney Howard placing third…
The Green Party of Canada Has Lost 11,000 Members
Anyone who follows Canadian politics is aware of the Green Party’s catastrophic performance in the 2021 election. After the party failed to nominate a full slate of candidates and saw its support collapse to 2.3% of votes Canada-wide, then-leader Annamie Paul publicly announced her resignation,…
Projecting the 2021 Election, One Week Out
(Short on time? The projection is at the end of the post – search for “one-week projection” or scroll down.) Over the past few elections, the increasing number of polls being published and the increasing sophistication of polling aggregators like CBC Poll Tracker and 338Canada…
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Party Democracy
A blog about the internal democracy of political parties in Canada: candidate nominations, policy development, governance, and more.
“Emperor Max” is No Solution
In a National Post column published August 31, Maxime Bernier lays out his reasons for leaving the Conservatives and forming his own federal party. Urging Canadians to learn about public choice theory, Bernier claims that Canadian politics has been hijacked by interest groups, whose lobbying has “corrupted”…
Green Party Vote Result Mirrors Partisan Ballot Comments
In an earlier post, I reported that the Green Party of Canada had taken the unusual measure of adding partisan commentary directly on its ballots for this year’s pre-convention voting. The pre-convention vote has now been tallied, and the results closely match the partisan ballot…
Signs Your Organization is Authoritarian (Part 1: Deflecting Criticism)
Authoritarianism isn’t always obvious. Sometimes, it infects an organization slowly, progressing for years before members realize (or admit) what has happened. If you’ve ever had a gut feeling that something just isn’t right with your organization’s leadership, think back to the last time a member…
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Power and Mind
A blog about how power works, how we share it, and how our minds get in the way. Political psychology, economics, and more.
Efficiency and the Road-Trip Economy
When we talk about the economy, the subject of efficiency seems guaranteed to come up. People are constantly concerned about efficiency, and being perceived as “inefficient” or “wasteful” can be a deadly blow to a politician or a policy idea. In this environment, it’s easy…
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Miscellaneous Posts
Singh’s “Points of Difference”: National Unity
(This post is the second in a series. Previously, I examined Singh’s claim about Abortion Rights.) At the first Leader’s Debate on Sept 12th, 2019, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh proposed four “points of difference” between the NDP and the Greens. One of his claims was…
Are Singh’s “Four Points of Difference” Between the Greens and NDP Legitimate?
During the Maclean’s–CityTV leader’s debate on September 12th 2019, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh contrasted his party with the Greens by naming four alleged points of difference between the parties. Are those differences legitimate?
A week before the GPC convention, a poll puts them at 10%. What’s the real story?
An article published September 21st on ipolitics.ca carried the headline More Canadians than ever support Green Party. Reporting on an EKOS poll, the article quoted pollster Frank Graves as saying the party was “doing as well as they ever have”, with support “around 10 points”, and…
Saul Bottcher 