A blog about the mechanics of elections in Canada: votes, candidates, dollars, and so on. Projections, models, insights.
Projection: May to Win Green Party Leadership in Final Round
The Green Party of Canada will announce a new leader this evening. Toward the end of the party’s 2020 leadership race, I used public donation data to project that Annamie Paul would defeat Dimitri Lascaris 54%-46% in the final round, with Courtney Howard placing third with 21%. This proved to be pretty accurate: Paul…
The Green Party of Canada Has Lost 11,000 Members
Anyone who follows Canadian politics is aware of the Green Party’s catastrophic performance in the 2021 election. After the party failed to nominate a full slate of candidates and saw its support collapse to 2.3% of votes Canada-wide, then-leader Annamie Paul publicly announced her resignation, comparing her experience as leader to crawling over broken…
Projecting the 2021 Election, One Week Out
(Short on time? The projection is at the end of the post – search for “one-week projection” or scroll down.) Over the past few elections, the increasing number of polls being published and the increasing sophistication of polling aggregators like CBC Poll Tracker and 338Canada allow us to enjoy a much more accurate read…
Greens Fail to Nominate Full Slate; up to $1,000,000 of Public Funding At Risk
The deadline to nominate candidates for the September 20th election has passed, and for the first time in two decades, the Green Party has failed to nominate a full slate. On August 15th, I raised the possibility that the Greens might fall short, nominating somewhere in the neighborhood of 245 candidates. As I write…
Slate Canyon: Expense Reimbursements and the Dilemma for Small Parties
In my previous post, I discussed the possibility that the Green Party of Canada may not run a full slate in the 2021 election, and could potentially lose hundreds of thousands of dollars of public funding as a result. Why? The reason lies in Canada’s system of reimbursing campaign expenses from public funds. This…
Candidate Shortage a Serious Problem For Greens
Sluggish candidate nominations could trigger a death spiral for the Greens, affecting finances, debate inclusion, and popular support.
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Saul Bottcher 