Building Blocs

A blog about the mechanics of elections in Canada: votes, candidates, dollars, and so on. Projections, models, insights.

Greens Fail to Nominate Full Slate; up to $1,000,000 of Public Funding At Risk

The deadline to nominate candidates for the September 20th election has passed, and for the first time in two decades, the Green Party has failed to nominate a full slate. On August 15th, I raised the possibility that the Greens might fall short, nominating somewhere in the neighborhood of 245 candidates. As I writeContinue reading “Greens Fail to Nominate Full Slate; up to $1,000,000 of Public Funding At Risk”

Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: Updated Projection

This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. This post updates the projection I posted on September 26th to account for last-minute data. Projection Annamie Paul wins the leadership in the 7th round,defeating Dimitri Lascaris 53.6% to 46.4%. Expected Round-by-Round Results The table below showsContinue reading “Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: Updated Projection”

Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: A Projection

This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. The projection is based on a statistical model, developed over the past year, that was designed specifically to project ranked-ballot leadership races in Canada. Using this model, 100,000 simulations were run and the results analyzed. Projection AnnamieContinue reading “Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: A Projection”

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