A blog about the mechanics of elections in Canada: votes, candidates, dollars, and so on. Projections, models, insights.
Projecting the 2021 Election, One Week Out
(Short on time? The projection is at the end of the post – search for “one-week projection” or scroll down.) Over the past few elections, the increasing number of polls being published and the increasing sophistication of polling aggregators like CBC Poll Tracker and 338Canada allow us to enjoy a much more accurate readContinue reading “Projecting the 2021 Election, One Week Out”
Greens Fail to Nominate Full Slate; up to $1,000,000 of Public Funding At Risk
The deadline to nominate candidates for the September 20th election has passed, and for the first time in two decades, the Green Party has failed to nominate a full slate. On August 15th, I raised the possibility that the Greens might fall short, nominating somewhere in the neighborhood of 245 candidates. As I writeContinue reading “Greens Fail to Nominate Full Slate; up to $1,000,000 of Public Funding At Risk”
Slate Canyon: Expense Reimbursements and the Dilemma for Small Parties
In my previous post, I discussed the possibility that the Green Party of Canada may not run a full slate in the 2021 election, and could potentially lose hundreds of thousands of dollars of public funding as a result. Why? The reason lies in Canada’s system of reimbursing campaign expenses from public funds. ThisContinue reading “Slate Canyon: Expense Reimbursements and the Dilemma for Small Parties”
Candidate Shortage a Serious Problem For Greens
Sluggish candidate nominations could trigger a death spiral for the Greens, affecting finances, debate inclusion, and popular support.
Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: Updated Projection
This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. This post updates the projection I posted on September 26th to account for last-minute data. Projection Annamie Paul wins the leadership in the 7th round,defeating Dimitri Lascaris 53.6% to 46.4%. Expected Round-by-Round Results The table below showsContinue reading “Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: Updated Projection”
Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: A Projection
This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. The projection is based on a statistical model, developed over the past year, that was designed specifically to project ranked-ballot leadership races in Canada. Using this model, 100,000 simulations were run and the results analyzed. Projection AnnamieContinue reading “Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: A Projection”
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