A blog about the trials and tribulations of the Green Party of Canada.
(Short on time? The projection is at the end of the post – search for “one-week projection” or scroll down.) Over the past few elections, the increasing number of polls being published and the increasing sophistication of polling aggregators like CBC Poll Tracker and 338Canada allow us to enjoy a much more accurate readContinue reading “Projecting the 2021 Election, One Week Out”
The deadline to nominate candidates for the September 20th election has passed, and for the first time in two decades, the Green Party has failed to nominate a full slate. On August 15th, I raised the possibility that the Greens might fall short, nominating somewhere in the neighborhood of 245 candidates. As I writeContinue reading “Greens Fail to Nominate Full Slate; up to $1,000,000 of Public Funding At Risk”
Sluggish candidate nominations could trigger a death spiral for the Greens, affecting finances, debate inclusion, and popular support.
This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. This post updates the projection I posted on September 26th to account for last-minute data. Projection Annamie Paul wins the leadership in the 7th round,defeating Dimitri Lascaris 53.6% to 46.4%. Expected Round-by-Round Results The table below showsContinue reading “Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: Updated Projection”
This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. The projection is based on a statistical model, developed over the past year, that was designed specifically to project ranked-ballot leadership races in Canada. Using this model, 100,000 simulations were run and the results analyzed. Projection AnnamieContinue reading “Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: A Projection”
(This post is the second in a series. Previously, I examined Singh’s claim about Abortion Rights.) At the first Leader’s Debate on Sept 12th, 2019, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh proposed four “points of difference” between the NDP and the Greens. One of his claims was that the NDP has “a solid position when itContinue reading “Singh’s “Points of Difference”: National Unity”
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