Projecting the 2021 Election, One Week Out

(Short on time? The projection is at the end of the post – search for “one-week projection” or scroll down.) Over the past few elections, the increasing number of polls being published and the increasing sophistication of polling aggregators like CBC Poll Tracker and 338Canada allow us to enjoy a much more accurate read onContinue reading “Projecting the 2021 Election, One Week Out”

Greens Fail to Nominate Full Slate; up to $1,000,000 of Public Funding At Risk

The deadline to nominate candidates for the September 20th election has passed, and for the first time in two decades, the Green Party has failed to nominate a full slate. On August 15th, I raised the possibility that the Greens might fall short, nominating somewhere in the neighborhood of 245 candidates. As I write this,Continue reading “Greens Fail to Nominate Full Slate; up to $1,000,000 of Public Funding At Risk”

Slate Canyon: Expense Reimbursements and the Dilemma for Small Parties

In my previous post, I discussed the possibility that the Green Party of Canada may not run a full slate in the 2021 election, and could potentially lose hundreds of thousands of dollars of public funding as a result. Why? The reason lies in Canada’s system of reimbursing campaign expenses from public funds. This postContinue reading “Slate Canyon: Expense Reimbursements and the Dilemma for Small Parties”

Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: Updated Projection

This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. This post updates the projection I posted on September 26th to account for last-minute data. Projection Annamie Paul wins the leadership in the 7th round,defeating Dimitri Lascaris 53.6% to 46.4%. Expected Round-by-Round Results The table below shows theContinue reading “Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: Updated Projection”

Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: A Projection

This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. The projection is based on a statistical model, developed over the past year, that was designed specifically to project ranked-ballot leadership races in Canada. Using this model, 100,000 simulations were run and the results analyzed. Projection Annamie PaulContinue reading “Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: A Projection”

PPC vs. Greens: An Update

My previous post asked whether the People’s Party of Canada had overtaken the Greens. In that post, I compared polling, membership levels, donations, and number of EDAs. Several months have passed since then. This post updates my analysis with the most current information.

Have the People’s Party Overtaken the Greens?

Recent announcements from the People’s Party of Canada indicate that, in the three-and-a-half months since it formed, it may have already surpassed the Green Party of Canada to become Canada’s fourth-largest federal party.

Decade of Decline, Part 1.2: The Declining Number of Active EDAs

Since 2007, the Green Party of Canada has experienced an ongoing decline in the number of active EDAs (riding associations), and an erosion of the party’s core of long-established EDAs. (This post is the second part of Decade of Decline, my report detailing the collapse of grassroots support for the Green Party of Canada. TheContinue reading “Decade of Decline, Part 1.2: The Declining Number of Active EDAs”

Decade of Decline, Part 1.1: The Collapse of Local Contributions

Since 2007, the Green Party of Canada has experienced a severe decrease in contributions to its EDAs (riding associations), with the losses now totaling more than 80% of both dollars and contributors. The trend has remained negative through 2017. (This post is the first part of Decade of Decline, my report detailing the collapse of grassrootsContinue reading “Decade of Decline, Part 1.1: The Collapse of Local Contributions”