This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. The projection is based on a statistical model, developed over the past year, that was designed specifically to project ranked-ballot leadership races in Canada. Using this model, 100,000 simulations were run and the results analyzed.
Annamie Paul wins the leadership in the 7th round.
She defeats Dimitri Lascaris 64.5% to 35.5%.
Expected Round-by-Round Results
The table below shows the expected standings in each round, along with eliminations and vote transfers. Values are rounded to the nearest 0.1%.Continue reading →