A blog about the mechanics of elections and political parties in Canada. Insights about votes, dollars, polls, and more.
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NDP Leadership Results: Evidence of Democratic Deficits
On March 29, Avi Lewis won the NDP leadership race with 56% support in the first round of voting. This matches a projection I made on March 12, based on an analysis of donation statistics. But this should be no surprise, since donations strongly predict… (read more)
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Lewis to win NDP Leadership with 56% in First Round
(Disclosure: I’m not an NDP member, and I’m not working for or supporting any campaign in the leadership race.) The NDP leadership race doesn’t end until March 29th, but the result is already clear: Avi Lewis will win the contest with more than double the… (read more)
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The NDP Leadership Vote Will Not Be Democratic
(Disclosure: I am not an NDP member, nor am I supporting any candidate in the leadership race. Parts of this post were edited on 24 March 2026 to improve clarity.) One of the responsibilities we have, if we want to live in a real democracy,… (read more)
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The Green Party of Canada is Dead—And That’s Okay
It’s been a tough few years for the Green Party of Canada, and the 2025 election was no exception: after being kicked out of the leader’s debates, the Greens fell to 1.2% popular support and lost MP Mike Morrice by a heart-breaking 375 votes, leaving… (read more)
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Is Canada Moving to a Two-Party System?
Canada’s most recent election had a result we haven’t seen in almost a century: the top two parties both got more than 40% of the popular vote. Smaller parties fared very poorly, with the NDP and Greens losing half their support from the previous election,… (read more)
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2025 Election: What to Expect in the Final Week
The debates are over, advance voting has closed after a record turnout, and we’re into the final week before election day on April 28. Polling shows the gap between the Liberal and Conservative parties has narrowed slightly since the debate, with about 5% now separating… (read more)
Saul Bottcher 