Category: Election Dynamics
-
The NDP Leadership Vote Will Not Be Democratic
(Disclosure: I am not an NDP member, nor am I supporting any candidate in the leadership race.) One of the responsibilities we have, if we want to live in a…
-
The Green Party of Canada is Dead—And That’s Okay
It’s been a tough few years for the Green Party of Canada, and the 2025 election was no exception: after being kicked out of the leader’s debates, the Greens fell…
-
Is Canada Moving to a Two-Party System?
Canada’s most recent election had a result we haven’t seen in almost a century: the top two parties both got more than 40% of the popular vote. Smaller parties fared…
-
2025 Election: What to Expect in the Final Week
The debates are over, advance voting has closed after a record turnout, and we’re into the final week before election day on April 28. Polling shows the gap between the…
-
Who Really Chose Mark Carney?
On March 14, Mark Carney was sworn in as Canada’s 24th Prime Minister. As many commentators have observed, Carney is an “unelected” Prime Minister, in the sense that he doesn’t…
-
Final Projection: Carney to Win First Round with 71%
(A note to my subscribers: After a long hiatus, I’ve resumed this blog and will be posting weekly on various political topics. I hope you’ll continue to follow me and…
-
Carney in a Landslide? Data Disagrees with Polling and Pundits
The Liberal Party of Canada will elect a new leader on March 9. Usually, a party leadership election is something that happens when the party is out of power and…
-
Projection: May to Win Green Party Leadership in Final Round
The Green Party of Canada will announce a new leader this evening. Toward the end of the party’s 2020 leadership race, I used public donation data to project that Annamie…
-
The Green Party of Canada Has Lost 11,000 Members
Anyone who follows Canadian politics is aware of the Green Party’s catastrophic performance in the 2021 election. After the party failed to nominate a full slate of candidates and saw…
-
Projecting the 2021 Election, One Week Out
(Short on time? The projection is at the end of the post – search for “one-week projection” or scroll down.) Over the past few elections, the increasing number of polls…
Saul Bottcher 