Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: Updated Projection

This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. This post updates the projection I posted on September 26th to account for last-minute data.

Projection

Annamie Paul wins the leadership in the 7th round,
defeating Dimitri Lascaris 53.6% to 46.4%.

Expected Round-by-Round Results

The table below shows the expected standings in each round, along with eliminations and vote transfers. Values are rounded to the nearest 0.1%.

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Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: A Projection

This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. The projection is based on a statistical model, developed over the past year, that was designed specifically to project ranked-ballot leadership races in Canada. Using this model, 100,000 simulations were run and the results analyzed.

Projection

Official portrait of Annamie Paul.

Annamie Paul wins the leadership in the 7th round.
She defeats Dimitri Lascaris 64.5% to 35.5%.

Expected Round-by-Round Results

The table below shows the expected standings in each round, along with eliminations and vote transfers. Values are rounded to the nearest 0.1%.

Continue reading →