This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. The projection is based on a statistical model, developed over the past year, that was designed specifically to project ranked-ballot leadership races in Canada. Using this model, 100,000 simulations were run and the results analyzed.
Annamie Paul wins the leadership in the 7th round. She defeats Dimitri Lascaris 64.5% to 35.5%.
Expected Round-by-Round Results
The table below shows the expected standings in each round, along with eliminations and vote transfers. Values are rounded to the nearest 0.1%.
At the first Leader’s Debate on Sept 12th, 2019, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh proposed four “points of difference” between the NDP and the Greens. One of his claims was that the NDP has “a solid position when it comes down to national unity”, and by implication, that the Greens do not. Is this claim legitimate?
During the Maclean’s–CityTV leader’s debate on September 12th 2019, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh contrasted his party with the Greens by naming four alleged points of difference between the parties. Are those differences legitimate?
Recent announcements from the People’s Party of Canada indicate that, in the three-and-a-half months since it formed, it may have already surpassed the Green Party of Canada to become Canada’s fourth-largest federal party.
Since 2007, the Green Party of Canada has experienced an ongoing decline in the number of active EDAs (riding associations), and an erosion of the party’s core of long-established EDAs.
(This post is the second part of Decade of Decline, my report detailing the collapse of grassroots support for the Green Party of Canada. The remaining parts will be published on this blog over the next few weeks. For a table of contents, please see the Introduction.)
An article published September 21st on ipolitics.ca carried the headline More Canadians than ever support Green Party. Reporting on an EKOS poll, the article quoted pollster Frank Graves as saying the party was “doing as well as they ever have”, with support “around 10 points”, and then stating “If there was an election tomorrow, they’d probably win a handful of seats.”
This would appear to be positive news for GPC supporters heading into the party’s national convention next weekend. The reality, however, is less inspiring.
Since 2007, the Green Party of Canada has experienced a severe decrease in contributions to its EDAs (riding associations), with the losses now totaling more than 80% of both dollars and contributors. The trend has remained negative through 2017.
(This post is the first part of Decade of Decline, my report detailing the collapse of grassroots support for the Green Party of Canada. The remaining parts will be published on this blog over the next few weeks. For a table of contents, please see the Introduction.)