This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. This post updates the projection I posted on September 26th to account for last-minute data. Projection Annamie Paul wins the leadership in the 7th round,defeating Dimitri Lascaris 53.6% to 46.4%. Expected Round-by-Round Results The table below shows theContinue reading “Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: Updated Projection”
This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. The projection is based on a statistical model, developed over the past year, that was designed specifically to project ranked-ballot leadership races in Canada. Using this model, 100,000 simulations were run and the results analyzed. Projection Annamie PaulContinue reading “Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: A Projection”
Some folks on social media have asked how the Green Party’s result in this election compares to past years. Here’s a chart: Year Leader Popular vote Seats 1984-2000 Trevor Hancock,Seymour Trieger,Chris Lea,Joan Russow 0.21-0.81% 0 2004 Jim Harris 4.32% 0 2006 Jim Harris 4.48% 0 2008 Elizabeth May 6.80% 0 2011 Elizabeth May 3.91% 1Continue reading “Green Party of Canada Historical Election Results”
(This post is the second in a series. Previously, I examined Singh’s claim about Abortion Rights.) At the first Leader’s Debate on Sept 12th, 2019, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh proposed four “points of difference” between the NDP and the Greens. One of his claims was that the NDP has “a solid position when it comesContinue reading “Singh’s “Points of Difference”: National Unity”
During the Maclean’s–CityTV leader’s debate on September 12th 2019, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh contrasted his party with the Greens by naming four alleged points of difference between the parties. Are those differences legitimate?
My previous post asked whether the People’s Party of Canada had overtaken the Greens. In that post, I compared polling, membership levels, donations, and number of EDAs. Several months have passed since then. This post updates my analysis with the most current information.
Recent announcements from the People’s Party of Canada indicate that, in the three-and-a-half months since it formed, it may have already surpassed the Green Party of Canada to become Canada’s fourth-largest federal party.
Since 2007, the Green Party of Canada has experienced an ongoing decline in the number of active EDAs (riding associations), and an erosion of the party’s core of long-established EDAs. (This post is the second part of Decade of Decline, my report detailing the collapse of grassroots support for the Green Party of Canada. TheContinue reading “Decade of Decline, Part 1.2: The Declining Number of Active EDAs”
An article published September 21st on ipolitics.ca carried the headline More Canadians than ever support Green Party. Reporting on an EKOS poll, the article quoted pollster Frank Graves as saying the party was “doing as well as they ever have”, with support “around 10 points”, and then stating “If there was an election tomorrow, they’d probably winContinue reading “A week before the GPC convention, a poll puts them at 10%. What’s the real story?”
Since 2007, the Green Party of Canada has experienced a severe decrease in contributions to its EDAs (riding associations), with the losses now totaling more than 80% of both dollars and contributors. The trend has remained negative through 2017. (This post is the first part of Decade of Decline, my report detailing the collapse of grassrootsContinue reading “Decade of Decline, Part 1.1: The Collapse of Local Contributions”