Tag: projection
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2025 Election: What to Expect in the Final Week
The debates are over, advance voting has closed after a record turnout, and we’re into the final week before election day on April 28. Polling shows the gap between the…
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Final Projection: Carney to Win First Round with 71%
(A note to my subscribers: After a long hiatus, I’ve resumed this blog and will be posting weekly on various political topics. I hope you’ll continue to follow me and…
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Carney in a Landslide? Data Disagrees with Polling and Pundits
The Liberal Party of Canada will elect a new leader on March 9. Usually, a party leadership election is something that happens when the party is out of power and…
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Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: Updated Projection
This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. This post updates the projection I posted on September 26th to account for…
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Green Party of Canada Leadership Results: A Projection
This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. The projection is based on a statistical model, developed over the past year,…
Saul Bottcher 