SAUL BOTTCHER
…is a writer, researcher, musician, and activist. I publish a regular newsletter here on my website. You can follow me (free and ad-free) to receive my latest posts, which I send about twice per month. Or, just scroll down to see what’s new.
The Latest
-
Final Projection: Carney to Win First Round with 71%
(A note to my subscribers: After a long hiatus, I’ve resumed this blog and will be posting weekly on various political topics. I hope you’ll continue to follow me and will share any pieces you find intriguing with your friends and contacts.) In my previous…
-
Carney in a Landslide? Data Disagrees with Polling and Pundits
The Liberal Party of Canada will elect a new leader on March 9. Usually, a party leadership election is something that happens when the party is out of power and reinventing itself, and is an event that mostly interests the party’s core supporters. This time,…
-
Projection: May to Win Green Party Leadership in Final Round
The Green Party of Canada will announce a new leader this evening. Toward the end of the party’s 2020 leadership race, I used public donation data to project that Annamie Paul would defeat Dimitri Lascaris 54%-46% in the final round, with Courtney Howard placing third…
-
The Green Party of Canada Has Lost 11,000 Members
Anyone who follows Canadian politics is aware of the Green Party’s catastrophic performance in the 2021 election. After the party failed to nominate a full slate of candidates and saw its support collapse to 2.3% of votes Canada-wide, then-leader Annamie Paul publicly announced her resignation,…
-
Projecting the 2021 Election, One Week Out
(Short on time? The projection is at the end of the post – search for “one-week projection” or scroll down.) Over the past few elections, the increasing number of polls being published and the increasing sophistication of polling aggregators like CBC Poll Tracker and 338Canada…
-
Greens Fail to Nominate Full Slate; up to $1,000,000 of Public Funding At Risk
The deadline to nominate candidates for the September 20th election has passed, and for the first time in two decades, the Green Party has failed to nominate a full slate. On August 15th, I raised the possibility that the Greens might fall short, nominating somewhere…
Saul Bottcher 