projections – Saul Bottcher

Projection: May to Win Green Party Leadership in Final Round

Former Green Party of Canada leader Elizabeth May sits on a wooden throne in the middle of the rainforest, wearing dark green robes and a golden crown, with a cone of light falling on her from above.

The Green Party of Canada will announce a new leader this evening. Toward the end of the party’s 2020 leadership race, I used public donation data to project that Annamie Paul would defeat Dimitri Lascaris 54%-46% in the final round, with Courtney Howard placing third with 21%. This proved to be pretty accurate: Paul defeatedContinue reading “Projection: May to Win Green Party Leadership in Final Round”

Projecting the 2021 Election, One Week Out

(Short on time? The projection is at the end of the post – search for “one-week projection” or scroll down.) Over the past few elections, the increasing number of polls being published and the increasing sophistication of polling aggregators like CBC Poll Tracker and 338Canada allow us to enjoy a much more accurate read onContinue reading “Projecting the 2021 Election, One Week Out”